Here is a comprehensive, multi-agency drought update compiled by the National Weather Service:
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1015 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020 ...AFTER SEPTEMBER IMPROVEMENTS, DROUGHT EXPANDS IN OCTOBER... SYNOPSIS... DESPITE OCTOBER GENERALLY BEING THE THIRD WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION, LATE SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER THUS FAR HAVE BEEN DRY TO VERY DRY AND DROUGHT HAS EXPANDED ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MUNICIPALITIES HAVE RETURNED TO YEAR-ROUND WATER CONSERVATION STATUS, A QUICK-TURN AROUND BACK TO STAGE 1 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PRIOR TO THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT. THE DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED OCTOBER 22ND SHOWS ONLY 31 PERCENT OF OUR AREA NOT IN D0 OR WORSE DESIGNATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE AREA FROM AUSTIN AND ITS SOUTHERN SUBURBS TO THE HILL COUNTRY OF BURNET AND LLANO COUNTIES AND ALSO OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATASCOSA TO EASTERN LEE. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE (35 PERCENT OF OUR CWA) IS ALONG AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) AND EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTED ACROSS 12 PERCENT AND 5 PERCENT OF OUR AREA, RESPECTIVELY. THIS AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT STRETCHED FROM MAVERICK TO EASTERN MEDINA COUNTY. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN - CONSERVATION STAGE DEL RIO - STAGE 1 FREDERICKSBURG - STAGE 1 (VOLUNTARY) KERRVILLE - YEAR ROUND CONSERVATION NEW BRAUNFELS - STAGE 1 SAN ANTONIO – YEAR ROUND CONSERVATION SAN MARCOS - YEAR ROUND CONSERVATION UVALDE - STAGE 1 OTHER LOCATIONS MAY HAVE WATER CONSERVATION OR RESTRICTION RULES SO BE SURE TO CHECK FOR YOUR LOCATION. EDWARDS AQUIFER INFORMATION: CURRENT LEVEL 2019 LEVEL OCTOBER AVERAGE DIFFERENCE 658.8 FT 668.9 FT 663.5 FT -4.7 FT AFTER RECOVERING IN SEPTEMBER, RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP AGAIN AS A RESULT OF NO RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 30 PLUS DAYS. SINCE OCTOBER IS NORMALLY THE THIRD WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, THIS LED TO A LARGE SWING FROM 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL RESERVOIR LEVELS TO NEARLY 5 FEET BELOW. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 23, 2020... BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS. CONSERVATION POOL LATEST ELEVATION DIFFERENCE (FT) (FT) (FT) LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1072.7 -44.3 MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1037.1 -27.1 CANYON LAKE 909 905.0 -4.0 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1014.6 -5.4 LAKE TRAVIS 681 660.8 -20.2 SOIL MOISTURE IMPACTS. AS OF OCTOBER 22, 2020, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) INDICATED THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE HAS AGAIN DEGRADED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION HAS AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURES IN THE 10TH TO 30TH PERCENTILES, WITH VALUES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. FIRE DANGER MAP - OCTOBER 22, 2020 ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVED FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC), THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS WAS UNDER A MODERATE FIRE DANGER RATING. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER PREDICTIVE SERVICES OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 1ST INDICATES THAT BY DECEMBER, OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE. TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE INDICATED KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) VALUES HAVE DEGRADED SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT, WITH COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGES BACK ABOVE 400 FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. KBDI IS AN INDEX USED TO DETERMINE FOREST FIRE POTENTIAL, WHICH IS BASED ON A DAILY WATER BALANCE CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE. THE KBDI CAN RANGE FROM 0 TO 800, WHERE A VALUE OF 0 REPRESENTS NO MOISTURE DEPLETION, AND 800 WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ABSOLUTELY DRY CONDITIONS. A KBDI BETWEEN 600 AND 800 IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. COUNTY KBDI VALUES AS OF OCTOBER 22, 2020: 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 BLANCO ATASCOSA GONZALES BANDERA MEDINA BURNET CALDWELL KENDALL BASTROP HAYS COMAL KINNEY BEXAR KARNES DEWITT LEE DIMMIT LAVACA EDWARDS TRAVIS FRIO LLANO FAYETTE VAL VERDE GUADALUPE WILSON GILLESPIE WILLIAMSON KERR MAVERICK REAL UVALDE ZAVALA TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE MAPS INDICATED THAT BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR 30 COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF OCTOBER 21, 2020: COUNTIES WITH BURN BANS CURRENTLY IN PLACE: BANDERA KINNEY BEXAR MAVERICK CALDWELL MEDINA COMAL REAL DIMMIT TRAVIS EDWARDS VAL VERDE FRIO ZAVALA HAYS GUADALUPE KARNES COUNTIES WITHOUT BURN BANS CURRENTLY IN PLACE: ATASCOSA KENDALL BASTROP KERR BLANCO LAVACA BURNET LEE DEWITT LLANO FAYETTE UVALDE GILLESPIE WILLIAMSON GONZALES WILSON AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FROM TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE AS OF: OCTOBER 14, 2020 -DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES -PRODUCERS PREPARED FIELDS FOR SMALL GRAIN AND SPRING ROW CROPS -LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS FAIR TO GOOD, HIGH NUMBERS MARKETED. SUPPLEMENTING FEED DUE TO DRY RANGELAND CONDITIONS -CATTLE, SHEEP, AND GOAT MARKETS DOING WELL, FALL SHEARING CONT. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING SLOWED IN BEXAR COUNTY (OCT. 6TH) -WILDLIFE CONDITIONS GOOD LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... IN THE SHORT TERM, SOME RAINFALL CHANCES ARE FINALLY RETURNING TO END OCTOBER, BUT LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR DRYNESS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK MADE OCTOBER 22 AND VALID OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 5 IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (33-40%) AND FOR BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL (40-50%). THE WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK CREATED OCT 16 AND VALID OCT 31-NOVEMBER 13 CONTINUES THE LIKELY DRY PATTERN (50-55%) WHILE INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO RETURN (55-60%). WITH LA NINA NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FALL AND WINTER, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE OVERALL WARMER, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY 2021, WITH THIS SIGNAL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE END OF THIS YEAR. THE CPC THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY DEPICTS A 55-65% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, HIGHEST WEST, AND A 50-55% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF TEXAS. THUS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS THERE WILL BE FURTHER DETERIORATION IN DROUGHT STATUS. LOCAL RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. 2020 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF TO DATE TO DATE FROM NORMAL NORMAL AUSTIN BERGSTROM 32.45" 28.36" +4.09" 114% AUSTIN MABRY 29.94" 28.02" +1.92" 107% DEL RIO 11.22" 17.59" -6.37" 64% SAN ANTONIO 18.24" 27.15" -8.91" 67% NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOVEMBER 26, 2020 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER, THE USDA, STATE,AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE, AND USGS.